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Re the blackhole I'm pretty sure the idea would be that all would pay road tolling . Maybe even fuel duty abolished and finally made fair so it's on mileage covered not fuel consumption. ? It will be in one pocket and out the another no doubt though. I did see some discussion about first 3000 miles free , possibly to make peopel ask themselevs if that journey is absolutely necesary ?... and then tolled from then, only a suggestion currently.

We are currently seieng asituation where E10 is causing GREATER petrol usage and I've heard talk of people moving to diesel to compensate ... That was well thought out then??
 

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Hmmmm, traitor Jay Leno has run a 9.2 in a Tesla. Wonder the real cost of the set up.
 

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Hmmmm, traitor Jay Leno has run a 9.2 in a Tesla. Wonder the real cost of the set up.
The guy who campaigns a Tesla Model 3 toring the drag strips in the 'States - tows a 'kin big diesel generator everywhere.......seeingly some of the 'States don't have comprehensive charger networks.......
 

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As Jonny Rotten once said, " ever get the feeling you've been cheated?"

There will be plenty more 'cheating' to come - RFL will be applied to electric vehicles, as will a differential energy rate for the dedicated higher output home chargers that have recently installed with their own smart metering.
 

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I've written an essay's worth on the pointlessness of EVs elsewhere on here.

Simple economics. Electricity WILL have fuel duty added, it can't continue to be untaxed, (and the charging software I see has this built into it so the hardware providers are expecting it...).

The idea of GPS infrastructure working for road toll charges when the gov can't manage a simple COVID app that undergrad level coders could have built for £100k for less than £37BN is a joke. It's not going to happen anytime soon is it? And who is going to pay for it.

Once you add up the current cost of electricity, over 25p per kWh on the trading floor before transmission costs of at least 12p and rising, plus the fuel duty you'll find an EV is double the cost of petrol. I posted the calcs some time ago. I've seen spikes of £40 per kWh on the spot market for margin calls when supply is tight... And it's getting worse....

The price cap is now some 70% below the cost of actual production, so you can kiss that goodbye next year. It will be as high as 60p per kWh to charge your EV, not 7p at night. And time of use rates on smart meters will see that rise to insane levels at time of peak demand because that is the only way the electricity companies can cover this level of volatility and no go bankrupt,

This is because even though the likes of EDF forward bought a certain amount of energy on the futures market for 3 years, fixing the prices, they cant' control cost of transmission which has spiked to levels never seen before and contracts are being broken anyway in the futures market as generators can not supply at those prices with fuel input costs so high.

The only thing saving us from power outages and grid failures at the moment is wind and solar, which is dirt cheap, but variable. When those power purchase agreements are redone, and many are coming to the end of their 5 year tie ins, you will see those at much higher rates than the 7 to 9p they negotiated last time. So higher prices again....

Once the public catch on to this pricing nightmare, you will find they don't buy the cars.

I don't think the average person gives a damn about carbon. And it's a flawed argument anyway if you calculate the impact of trying to build 30 plus million EVs for the UK alone.

Plus, actually, we don't have enough lithium reserves to build them! FFS, a child could work that out. They are relying on new chemistry being found to meet these projected targets. These are 15 plus years away, even if they are possible at all.

EV's can't work where I live in Cornwall and people are missing the most vital issue .

Currently, we import up to 40% of our electricity from the EU, who we have just fallen out with and ended our energy trade agreements, (so we now pay £100 per MW transmission fee to import it instead of £15, one of the many reasons you are seeing such high prices).

We have less than a 4% margin on supply in winter and absolutely no new power plants of any decent size in progress other than one nuclear station which may add a couple of percent to our reserves, but over 8 terrawatts of coal and oil is going offline. Without EV we have a negative supply situation in less than 5 years.

It's a fantasy. What will happen is drop in low carbon fuels into existing cars, especially diesel, and a policy u turn on electrics.

The average new estate has zero margin at the transformer. Connection costs have gone through the roof so developers opt for the lowest possible connection capacity to build the development. I see this every day.

It would take decades to manufacture EV replacements and currently we can't even buy the chips or copper to build them.

Synfuels are vastly more environmentally friendly and socially responsible than cobalt mined by child slaves in China and strip mined lithium.

And policy is shifting to prioritise last mile delivery EVs for amazon, NHS, shopping deliveries, which is growing rapidly and taking the last drops of capacity in the grid network. EV's work for that usecase, it's hopeless in terms of infrastructure for domestic use.

Those 7kW lamp post chargers are actually even more constrained and rarely deliver more than one or two kw which means it might take 2 days to charge your Tesla, it's a joke. They are ornaments.

I tried an experiment 3 years ago. I put 2 girls 7 and 9 in front of a laptop and showed them nostalgia racing, gassers and the like. They were literally jumping up and down watching cars do burnouts and fly down the track with bellowing V8s.

Since then, both of them are totally obsessed with old cars and burn outs and beg me to take them out in my rods. They are helping me restore a mini so they are learning how things work. They are doing better at school than the other kids as it's teaching them to problem solve and practical skills that will stay with them and their social skills are better because other kids want to hear about this stuff and are badgering their parents to get old cars! Older girl next door struck and arc with a MIG last week! This isn't a lost cause.

Kids are still into this stuff, especially as they crave more then ever our time... it's our job to show them the excitement and that rebellious outlaw life that they think is so cool. Long term answer is to get your kids, friends kids or grandkids off the f^cking phones and out into the wider world.

People keep saying it's dying, I remember they said that in street machine in the 90s, yet every generation there is interest and you only have to look at classic fords and VWs to see people in their 30's spending massive money on these cars.

Just my opinion but I work in the energy sector, and I'm bored of the doom mongers. F^ck them. We make our own reality and it's our responsibility to stand up and say no. Worked the last 23 years....
 

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Very well written. Thank you for confirming mine and many others thoughts. Unfortunately this is the wrong platform to be saying this as , I believe, many on this forum fully understand and believe what you have said. It needs a wider audience, mainly the dumb arse numpties that actually believe there is a future in ev's
 

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Recently saw on a news channel the ev debate and whilst the top green expert said they are a good start he let slip he really wants everyone on the bus, end of.
Worst scenario car usage halves in 2030 due to ev cost, fossil fuellers priced off too. 2050 we're all on the bus (not me, I'll be brown bread way before :rolleyes: )
Best case, combustion seen as the saviour when we develop renewable crop/fuel for existing piston engines whilst evs become unobtanium suitable only for token logistics and the liberal elite. 🍻🍻🍻
 

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Covid has changed car ownership and journeys forever. As more and more work from home,they will look more at ev,s due to not having to drive them every day.

Sadly if youre not really into cars ,the sound of a v8 or similar means nothing. And lots of folks like to think their doing their bit for the environment so they will trade in there 10 k petrol car for a 30 k ev because they are saving the planet.


You will never educate the stupid
 

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Very interesting, V6 Minor!

But Nobody's got a point: I read somewhere that 58% of journeys are less than 5 miles. Ideal for an EV. People don't look at the huge capital outlay, particularly if they're on a PCP. It's the reduced cost of using something that's the attractive figure.

A mate of mine has gone totally electric (two vehicles) in his household. He previously drove a diesel Disco and reckoned that a summer family trip in a VW EV to the north of Scotland cost him roughly a third of what it cost him before in cost of fuel. Of course, this isn't comparing like for like in terms of vehicles. The bit I would have found concerning though is the unreliability of charging stations ie he'd go from charging point to point and find them not working. This was borne out by R4's You and Yours on Friday which had a phone in about EVs and many were saying the same thing. Great for local journeys where you can charge at home (if you've the facility!), but a problem on longer journeys. People were saying they were desperately driving from station to station trying to get a charge. One woman said "the EV stole her Christmas!" as she couldn't get a top up charge and ended up staying in a Travel Lodge as she couldn't get home and was charging her vehicle up using a lead from the hotel window! And that's before you get to the length of time it takes to charge...........

The Californians are pretty right on, but I saw this recently:
 

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I was listening to that R4 programme and it was said that there will be no EV "bangers" as the value of the battery will always be there. The vehicle will be worth more to recycle than sell down the chain. So EV's will never be for relatively poor people.
 

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Very well written. Thank you for confirming mine and many others thoughts. Unfortunately this is the wrong platform to be saying this as , I believe, many on this forum fully understand and believe what you have said. It needs a wider audience, mainly the dumb arse numpties that actually believe there is a future in ev's
Thank you. I fear you might be right, but I do discuss this in terms of policy as an external government adviser and actually, they are listening. if only because they realise the EV dream is simply not possible and they need to get out of the commitment. It's the civil service who push the agenda, not the elected government and I can absolutely say with confidence that nobody who understands the engineering challenges believes the EV narrative for even a second. It's simply impossible.
 

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Recently saw on a news channel the ev debate and whilst the top green expert said they are a good start he let slip he really wants everyone on the bus, end of.
Worst scenario car usage halves in 2030 due to ev cost, fossil fuellers priced off too. 2050 we're all on the bus (not me, I'll be brown bread way before :rolleyes: )
Best case, combustion seen as the saviour when we develop renewable crop/fuel for existing piston engines whilst evs become unobtanium suitable only for token logistics and the liberal elite. 🍻🍻🍻
Yep... they want us all on public transport. This works in London but outside of london it's totally unaffordable and non existent. Where I live, it costs £8 to take a 1.2 mile trip from my village to the nearest town for shopping. You work that out and I can drive a 10mpg car and still be ahead. Plus they stop at 4pm. They gouge at peak times and if you travel before 9, it's even worse.

We already have drop in biofuels that can be scaled and work. We don't need to invent anything. Scaling Craig Venters algae based synfuels still has some production related work to be done, but it's not like trying to build an FTL drive!
 

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I was listening to that R4 programme and it was said that there will be no EV "bangers" as the value of the battery will always be there. The vehicle will be worth more to recycle than sell down the chain. So EV's will never be for relatively poor people.
Exactly this! 100%. Scrap value of a leaf EV pack is £4k. You're not going to be buying a £400 snotter with an MOT like I still do and run it because EVs won't get to that level.
 

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Covid has changed car ownership and journeys forever. As more and more work from home,they will look more at ev,s due to not having to drive them every day.

Sadly if youre not really into cars ,the sound of a v8 or similar means nothing. And lots of folks like to think their doing their bit for the environment so they will trade in there 10 k petrol car for a 30 k ev because they are saving the planet.


You will never educate the stupid
This is a valid point, and going further the other threat is the pool car model, where you simply summon a self driving car and it drops you off where you need to go. I think for edge cases for public transport in suburbs, this may well work and be a threat to car ownership. Ford think so.

I agree to most people a car is like an appliance, may as well be a fridge, but we still have the problem of where this energy might come from. I get that and I think you are right.

Working at home is a white collar thing though. One strategy board I worked on recently I suggested that AI will wipe out most of those jobs. Manual and engineering based jobs won't be under threat, it's simple to build any rule based decision process using something like Tensor Flow. I think most of these people will end up unemployed, which I guess might solve that problem... and create another.
 

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Discussion Starter · #119 ·
Interesting to read our local councils recent ripost to the much contested bus lanes on the A4 through Slough. These were brought in under the major lockdown without public consultation and are universally hated.
They are looking at removing them - possibly - but looking is about as far as it will get I think.

They cite that pollution has decreased over the last 12 months on the A4 - but of course it has, we have all been locked down! What they don't look at is the increase in polllution in the adjacent roads that everyone is using instead. When this was pointed out to them they had the gall to say the 'even with the take up of EV's, pollution is not the issue, we want everyone out of cars and on the buses'

This I thought was very telling - but destroys their arguement of the bus lanes for lower pollution though. The general population seem to have missed that point though.
 

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I think Nobody is right - but that will of course change when V6's scenario of expensive charging comes in. It may be too late by then of course.
I think everyone has a valid point and who knows where social pressure will lead us.

My point is, OK, so where is this energy going to come from? We can't supply current need reliably today and supply margins are getting worse. Adding in terrawats of EV demand is not physically possible.

It's not even as simple as lets build a lot of gas turbines.... you have to engineer the grid to accept that energy. It would require a total rebuild. And it takes 15 years start to finish to build something like Staythorpe in notts.

We are looking at a minimum of 50% more electricity production to reach 30% EV penetration. And at peak, a lot more than that. Plus electrification of heating.

Who is going to pay for this upgrade? It's hundreds of billions of pounds and I'd question if it's possible with unlimited cash because you'd have to dig up every cable to every house to upgrade it and upgrade every substation in the UK then the 132 kV network.

We also have the barrier of privatised energy operations, DNOs and the national grid, who all make a profit and need to be paid. We can electrify some of it for sure, using the spare capacity in industrial estates where you have decent 132 kV and 33kV network connections.

But most of these are at the limits so you're looking at energy management to use every last joule of energy between say industrial processes or at night, so this will enable the delivery infrastructure to be electric. But that's the last of the margin and they are all on connections that will be turned off the second the grid is constrained for domestic use.

If we can't fuel it, it won't happen.
 
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